Lone Star Running

Over dinner inside the Beltway a few months ago, I floated the idea that Texas could very well be a blue state within a generation, or at least very different politically. The Republican Senate staffer I was eating with laughed me off, and he happens to be about as good of an authority on electoral politics as I know. So maybe I’m not on to something.

But maybe I am. If immigration reform passes and is sweeping, a lot of currently disenfranchised Latinos will be voting tomorrow that aren’t voting today. Partially because they’re the backers of immigration reform, and partially because Latinos are fundamentally left-leaning anyway, Democrats stand to gain massively from it. Moreover, birth rates and internal immigration rates mean that the Latino non-immigrant population in Texas is expanding more rapidly than the white population is anyway.

I also think that social conservatism, strong and imposing amongst the Right in Texas, will provoke a unique barrier for the GOP. They can either keep up with the times and move left on issues like Gay Marraige and alienate their conservative base, or stick with their guns and lose out on young voters of all races in droves. Either way, there will be a very rough transition that would probably make it hard for true conservatives to win. Texas is getting younger not just because of the high birth rate, but because places like Austin are attractive to younger people. Not coincidentally, Austin is known as a bastion of liberalism in the Lone Star State.

Furthermore, I think people badly overrate how “Red” Texas is. Rick Perry has withstood some forceful challenges but is not wildly popular. The GOP establishment is mighty and entrenched, but that doesn’t mean that the population is irreversibly right-leaning. Ted Cruz won the latest open senate seat by 56%, which was a country mile ahead of his opposition but not insurmountable over a generation’s time. It makes Texas about as Red as California is Blue, but CA has a long history of Republican governors and Senators (just like Texas has with Democrats). Moreover, both states are getting more liberal.

The political sea change of the next generation has already correctly been identified as demographic in impetus, with a side order of social progressivism amongst younger people. Therefore, Red states with large metropolitan areas and some immigrant population (Arizona, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, South Carolina) all have a potential vulnerability in 20 years time. North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia are already in that place, with similar profiles. What it will take to get there, however, is building up a local apparatus that can compete with a GOP infrastructure that has been built over time since the civil rights movement.

Obviously, things can change. It’s likely the GOP will eventually re-chart a course rather than accept “permanent minority” status. One potential option is to shore up the midwestern Rust Belt where they remain competitive and the trends aren’t quite so strongly against them. But on its current path, expect the electoral map to change dramatically, as it always does, and this time in Democrat’s favor.

No Longer Free To Wear Sunscreen

“Freedom” is such a worn power-word in American political discourse, providing justifications without being justified itself, that the underlying concept is no longer contested or critically analyzed here in any but the most narrowly intellectual circles. The answer to “What is Freedom?” is usually not a definition but a comforting anecdote. As such, it’s a chameleon word, capable of presenting to the person that hears its name the exact freedom they want most.

It’s not like this everywhere. In academia, and abroad, there are real discussions about the difference between negative rights, positive rights, and facilitative rights. The consequence of not appreciating this distinction is an inadequate defense of what we think is important, most notably in my mind, freedom of expression. Therefore, I want to explain three conceptions of rights (my terminology is a bit unique to me but the concepts are not) as the basis of future discussions we have on this site and elsewhere so that we can reignite a the discussion on this increasingly important idea and decreasingly meaningful term.

Rights adjudicate between between different parties in an effort to maximize freedom. Different rights obviously protect different types of freedom. Freedom is broadly the ability for an agent to do as she chooses, but this is frequently misunderstood to occur in absolute terms; a person in this world is capable of being “perfectly free.” The issue is that many different things that constrain a persons capacity to do (also known as “agency”): the laws of physics, ones own physiology and intellect, material resources, social norms and expectations, government sanction, the will and priorities of other actors, and so on. I’d argue that therefore freedom needs to be understood as a relative discussion, incapable of achieving its absolutes, constrained by what it is realistically possible to change.

Political rights concern themselves with the role a government plays in constraining and facilitating freedom for individuals, and typically are adjudicated on the three axes I alluded to before:

Negative Rights are imperatives for the government to not restrict an individuals freedom. For example, individuals in the US have a right for their property to not be seized by the government without good reason (that reason is of course democratically defined, be it taxes or be it police seizure).

Positive Rights are imperatives for the government to facilitate an environment for individuals to exercise their freedom. Although this is a general term, I’ll use it more specifically to refer to an imperative to protect individuals against other individuals who might restrict their freedom. An example would be using force (like the police) to prevent individuals in society from stealing from other individuals and therefore depriving them of a right to property.

Facilitative Rights will be defined here as an imperative for the government to provide a service that directly facilitates some other more fundamental right. This is a particular form of a positive right, so I’ll focus my use of the term on provisions of institutions and indirect rights, which are usually intended to remove economic standing from preventing access to that right. Sticking with the property example, this would be an imperative for the government to provide individuals with property in the first place, like welfare. A less controversial facilitative right is the right to education in the US: not only will we make sure that the government and other parties don’t deny your right to education, we’ll actually provide it directly to you if you want.

The examples in the realm of free speech would look something like this: a negative rights protection prevents the government from shutting down your protest, a positive rights protection obligates the government to protect other individuals from shutting down your protest, and a facilitative right would obligate the government to provide the platform for the protest in the first place (such as permits, public space, community bullhorns, etc).

My fear is that Americans typically stop thinking about free speech as needing rights protections beyond the negative, if they even know that such protections exist. The US government has a rare, possibly unprecedented record of not squashing their own citizens’ right to speak, as much as the occasional cynical action may seem to indicate otherwise.

However, other actors constrain our ability to express freely; most threateningly, radical Islamists from far-flung foreign lands. South Park cannot depict the Prophet Muhammad, nor can others reproduce newsworthy instances of depictions such as in Danish newspapers and the Yale University, merely because of the fear of what might happen. Salman Rushdie and Nakoula Bassely Nakoula both managed to overcome these obstacles and produce works (the first life-alteringly excellent, the second IQ-reducingly terrible) that lampooned the Prophet, only to be threatened with death, shunned, shamed, and victim-blamed, all by their own government. Free speech wasn’t meant to protect what is popular, in good taste, and inoffensive, it’s meant to protect unpopular, edgy, provocative speech without judgement of its “quality,” or else the entire institution of free expression is undermined. If our government satisfies itself with preserving this negative right only, this right will exist only as a great lie.

At the very least, we need this sort of vocabulary to have more nuanced and realistic discussions about all public policy, not in the least economic policy prescriptions. Our free market is a cherished institution and right here in the States, yet almost no one argues that our right ends after the negative (ie the government must permit property and markets, and that’s it). Rather, even the most hardened Capitalists support government facilitation of these free markets, such as sanctioning anti-competitive behavior and enforcing the right to property and contracts with a functioning police and justice system. However, it’s quite reasonable to argue that the most competitive and free markets also don’t have inefficiencies and externalities, which are solved by government regulation or incorporation of natural monopolies, taxes, or providing infrastructure that makes trade easier such as roads and communication networks. These sorts of facilitative institutions are palatable to all, yet others are decried for being “too much government!” rather than soberly weighing its merits. Basically, if someone supports some facilitation, they cannot reject all other facilitation on principle alone. Hopefully, this realization will free us from the bizarre offense the right takes when the left proposes any government facilitation, and answers on more pragmatic grounds.

Freedom is not a simple concept. It is the core issue for political theorists, and it’s generalized cousin (agency) is the basis of all philosophy. My definitions don’t even start to cover the nuance of the subject. But discussions of important issues that gloss over the messy parts of what we actually are moving towards and how we get there aren’t productive and prevent us getting the right answers in the end.

5 Minutes Before Polls Close, My Predictions

After a four-day sprint in Ohio last weekend to seal the deal and see the Boss, HOVA, and POTUS in the same set, I drove away from Columbus at 1am this morning and got into DC by 10am, by way of a West Virginia truck stop where I had a delirium trip that suggested making a final call on the major hot races was a good idea. And I have literally one hour until polls start closing. Go go go!

PRESIDENT

  • Ohio, the mother of them all. This is a must-win for Romney, and almost as important to Obama. It’s still within the realm of reason that Romney wins, but Obama’s lead has been highly durable, and having just gotten off the ground there, I can tell you that the turnout and enthusiasm is far higher on the blue side than the GOP would like. I’m calling a 2-4 point Obama win.
  • Virginia is a bit of an enigma. It’s also the only one I would call a true coin flip. My instinct says that Obama pulls it out very, very narrowly, quite possibly by less than 2 points. It’s a rapidly changing state that is politically diverse yet more ethnically homogenous than, say, the western battlegrounds or North Carolina. This should be comfortable Obama territory in the long run, but this cycle is just not favorable enough for these newly blue states to feel comfortable.
  • Florida is more fundamentally Romney-friendly than a lot of these other states, but GOP contacts of mine on the ground say that their ground game is not nearly up to snuff. That being said, Florida is big enough that you don’t win it on the ground, so I think I’ll take the coin flip polling average, Romney leaning fundamentals, and say that Romney will manage to fall on the right side of a margin of a few literal hairs.
  • Colorado has the feel of the state that will break your damn heart this cycle. It’s a rapidly bluing state but it’s not there yet. I feel very uncomfortable at this one, and I’ll call it the same as Virginia. Obama by less than 2.
  • Iowa couldn’t let down Barack now. Not after that speech in Des Moines last night. I cannot help but feel like the gods of politics would have succumbed to their worst cynical whims if they deny the cosmic poetry of Barack winning the state that launched him towards becoming the most famous man in human history. Oh yeah, and he has a sizeable and durable lead in the polls combined with halfway decent fundamentals. Obama by 5.
  • Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania: you’re kidding, right? These aren’t swing states. Romney’s play here worked excellently in terms of injecting morale into his flagging campaign, but it’s not exactly a strategic move. These are all easy Obama wins, 5 points or more each.
  • North Carolina is supposedly firmly in the Romney column now, but I’m not buying it. I think this will get down to nail-biter status, although I’ll stick with Romney in the end. It fits the bill of one of those newly blue states that is still too early in its metamorphosis to be comfortable for Dems. I think it’s a 3 point victory for Romney that surprises everyone by how tight it is.
  • New Hampshire is the same in reverse for Obama. A state he should have handily just wont work out so nicely, and so he’ll squeak by here like Kerry did in ’04, by something around 2 points.

SENATE

  • Florida, Nebraska, and Pennsylvania all looked competitive at some point but I doubt they will be.
  • Arizona: Richard Carmona is a fucking idiot. He threw away a very, very good shot at a Senate seat by making a misogynistic joke in a debate. His opponent (Jeff Flake) is an unremarkable candidate in a state that should always be blue enough for Dems to have a shot, but those shots get harder once you have to fight against the incumbent. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Flake run up the score, 8 points or more.
  • Connecticut: what was once a race so frighteningly tight that my friends at the DSCC couldn’t hold down solid food is now a comfortable win for Chris Murphy, who I unflatteringly refer to as a “Cookie Cutter” New England Democrat.
  • Indiana, also known as part 1 of “White Republican Men have a major rape issue,” took a dead heat race into semi-comfortably Dem. Joe Donnelly wouldn’t win many statewide elections, but then again Richard Mourdock is a major lightweight who only managed to knock off incumbent Dick Lugar in the primary by painting him as being far too reasonable. I think Donnelly puts together a surprisingly solid 5 point win.
  • Massachusetts is one that guys like Nate Silver seem to think is in the bag for the Dems, and I feel like it is too, but this seat has “upset” and “fickle intervention of the down-home fratty massholes” written all over it. Who would’ve thought that a self-made Oklahoman was too posh for Massachusetts, for Christ’s sake? I think Warren squeaks it out under 4 points. Maybe even under 2. Shit, she might even lose. Holy crap will I be upset if that happens.
  • Missouri is part two of “GOP has a rape problem,” although this is far more open and shut. Todd Akin destroyed himself by not just making a plausibly defensible statement, like Mourdock, but straight up making a mockery of science. Republicans threw away a sure pickup here against one of the most laughably vulnerable Dem incumbents of a generation. McCaskill wins by a grudging 6 percent.
  • Montana: Denny Rehberg is a bit of a lame candidate, but western states are the kind most likely to respond to the tea party’s fundamental credo, so John Tester is in a world of trouble. He goes down by 5.
  •  Nevada: not happening, Dems. Which makes no sense since it’s a relatively blue state and Heller is no Henry Clay. They lose by 6.
  • North Dakota looks for all the world to stay red, but I actually like Heidi Heitkamp’s chances here. It’s a notoriously difficult state to call, and Heitkamp is many orders of magnitude more popular than Berg. I’ll call the upset and be loud about it if I’m right.
  • Ohio. Sherrod Brown is a stud, Josh Mandel is weird, and the ground game in Ohio borders on the militant. He’ll deal. 6 points up.
  • Wisconsin is a crazy, crazy state. I think Baldwin pulls it by 1 or 2 points.
  • Virginia is trending harder and harder towards Kaine, I think he takes it easily, by 6 points or so, as the state continues to bluify.

Alright, let’s clear up this whole “Romney is About to Win!” nonsense

Apparently, some of the right half of our punditry is obsessed with screaming about how Romney is still definitely going to win, and if anything should be considered the favorite. Nate Silver, a man of renowned fairness and expertise, has staked his entire professional reputation on an eye-popping projection of 90% likelihood of Obama victory.

The space between these two predictions is intellectually justified by aforementioned pundits via the gap between national and state polls, which are in such conflict that it’s almost certain that one group is wrong. The right’s contention is that the national polls are the ones that are correct, which implies that the state polls should instead fall into line with the national polls, which allows Romney to sweep every “toss-up” and maybe even snag some blue states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. Basically, regardless of how the story is told, it ends in Romney winning, and frequently winning big.

Briefly, a few reasons why this argument is idiotic:

  • Let’s say they’re right, that the national polls are methodologically sounder. That still gives Obama a lead, albeit narrow, in the popular vote. That means he wins if there is a neutral Electoral College map.
  • It isn’t neutral. The map favors him. So even a slight loss or slightly less rosy national picture than the state polls imply still favors him.
  • Let’s continue to assume that they’re methodologically sounder. We’ll draw in the state polls ever so slightly to compensate for that, and he still wins, because the state polls are good enough he’ll still win the ones he needs to. Worst case, he loses narrowly, but it’s certainly nothing like the 40-60% likelihood rightist pundits are throwing out there.
  • Sean Trende goes for a weird argument for explaining the flaw of state polls, by the way: there is a bi-polar sorting of polling data within most states (i.e. there are big bunches on either side of the mean of the polling data, but the bunches aren’t near the mean itself). He says that it would be wrong to assume the “right” answer is in the middle, the same way that two people guessing the nation’s capital was “Washington” and “New York” wouldn’t get the right answer by averaging them. Unfortunately for Trende, it IS possible both are wrong in either direction, meaning that taking the average does make some sense since it reduces the likelihood you’re wildly wrong. Even with the more favorable reading, Romney has a good but not certain shot at a clear but not massive victory. Clearly, that isn’t the same as being the favorite or standing even a 50-50 chance of winning.
  • I don’t even buy the premise, actually. I think its possible that the polls aren’t necessarily in contradiction. Sean Trende’s justification for this is that there are state polls in deep-blue states that show there aren’t enough Romney votes there to explain his national numbers. Yet, in the same breath, he says that state polls are unreliable and can’t be trusted. Do I even need to explain why this doesn’t work?
    • Also, to use his very point in converse, there has been almost no polling of population-heavy red states (Georgia, Texas, etc) that would provide the counterpoint to the blue-state narrative. These would be completely necessary to judge this argument, since if both sets of polls are accurate, it’s possible Mitt is just running up the score in these sorts of states.
  • But finally, why are we so certain the national polls are methodologically sounder? State polls have smaller sampling error and have more predictable turnout models. They have also been polled religiously in basically every swing state. Nate Silver even gave a bunch of reasons why one might lean in that direction. I think at best its an expression of personal preference.

I’m predicting a narrow popular vote victory and a sizeable but not mind-blowing EV victory for Obama.

Down The Stretch (Sept 24 Race Ratings)

All, this is my update, about 6 months after the first one, that will clarify how I would call the races if the election were held today. As I’ve said for about a year now, most notably in March, through the conventions, and scattered in between, Mitt Romney stands a weak chance of winning this election. The “whys” about it will of course be discussed at length after this election is over, but right now here is the what: Intrade has Obama at over 70% likelihood of winning the election, he leads national polls, he leads swing state polls, and he leads the Twitter political index. The Senate, due to Republican’s hard luck and scattered stupid decisions, also is trending blue. Although I don’t include House ratings, that will be a relatively close battle but the GOP will likely come out on top.

Anyone who thinks Mitt stands a good shot simply can’t count to 270. If you have a problem with that, go ahead and amend the electoral college (no seriously, please do).

PRESIDENT

The only major movement here is New Hampshire into the undecided column, with some movement on the peripheries as the candidates solidify their bases and outlier polls get overruled. NH is an odd place, with proximity to the state that Mitt governed and a strong libertarian bent, but no great love for the man and generally liberal tendencies. I’d still say that basically all the toss up states (with the possible exception of NC) are more likely to go blue than red, but given that Mitt’s on a bad news cycle after a flat post-convention performance, that could easily flip in a week or two.

Expected: Obama (293) Romney (191) Toss Up (54)

Likely D Leans D Toss Up Leans R Likely R
Michigan

N Mexico

Minnesota

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

Virginia

Ohio

Nevada

 

Iowa

N Carolina

Florida

N Hampsh.

Colorado

Missouri

Arizona

Indiana

Montana

Tennessee

South Carolina

SENATE

This is where the chaos is happening. Missouri goes from “nearly certain GOP pickup” to “fairly likely Democratic hold” after Todd Akin decided on the bold strategy of “foot in mouth” campaigning. He may still drop out of the race and the needle will swing back in his party’s direction, but you’d think he would’ve already done that if it was on the table. The only poll in Arizona in the last three months puts it at a statistical tie, but without more data, it’s hard to tell how “true” of a tossup it is. Connecticut is now a true tossup after being “likely” D, for reasons I’m still unclear on, since fellow Republican Chris Shays said that he had never run against an “opponent he had respected less” than Linda McMahon, describing her as “embarrassingly clueless.”  Montana will be a tough road for Dems but the state is susceptible to coattail/momentum effects, as evidenced by ’06. Dems have never gained traction in Nevada despite that being a prime pickup opportunity, but it’s close. Most surprising is the sudden Tammy Baldwin surge in Wisconsin, where Tommy Thompson previously had a commanding solid lead. We’ll see if it sticks. Either way, the GOP can’t be happy that the control of the senate relies on two New England states…

Expected: Dem (50) GOP (48) Toss Up (2)

Likely D Leans D Toss Up Leans R Likely R
N Mexico

Michigan

Maine*

Ohio

Missouri

Virginia

Wisconsin

Florida

Massachusetts

Connecticut

 

Arizona

Indiana

Montana

Nevada

N Dakota

*Angus King, the frontrunner, is an Independent widely expected to caucus with Democrats

NOTES ON RATINGS:

“Likely” signifies a race that is currently not extremely competitive but could become so

“Leans” signifies a competitive race that has a trend in one direction or the other

“Toss Up” signifies a very competitive race that has no clear trends either way

 

How the candidates see America as it is, not as it could be

Mitt Romney very likely just lost what already small chance he had of winning the presidential election barring some massive event that changes the electoral landscape (and an event of this magnitude would be hard to imagine, something on the order of the ’08 credit crisis).

There is a light-discussed but heavily-impactful problem in big time politics: we do not merely disagree on the ideal America, we actually tend to disagree on the reality we currently inhabit, and how we got there, as outlined by EJ Dionne’s excellent new book Our Divided Political Heart. As such, in a weird way, political differences are not merely proscriptive, they’re descriptive, even though serious academics wouldn’t regard that as a matter of opinion.

Barack Obama was actually the first to make damaging statements that indicated his “true” descriptive beliefs about America. The first happened back in ’08, when he described the country’s reactionaries as clinging to “guns and religion.” The second, quite recently, was the infamous “you didn’t build that” line. These statements, especially considered together, unambiguously indicate that he sees his enemies as people who are detached from reality, ruled by fear, and bury their head in the sand to avoid the messy and tough truths of reality. Needless to say, these statements were more than a little alienating for those who cherish their individualism and their faith.

However, at least for the second line, adding one simple word to clarify his meaning (that is abundantly clear if you read the context of the quote) changes his statement to something much more palatable: “you didn’t build that alone.” Mitt, however, has no such ability to save grace. There was no lack of context for the video, and if anything, the context of a private fundraising speech to wealthy donors makes his words even more damning.

The worst thing Mitt Romney could do, then, is validate what the Left has long whined about the Right: proscriptive opinions aside, they don’t appear to inhabit the same reality that we do. Unfortunately, that certainly appears to be exactly what Mitt is saying in this now famous Mother Jones video. His America is one where 53% of Americans are indentured servants to the rest, who contribute nothing, suck at the government’s teat, do not take responsibility for themselves, and are so blinded by their dependence they won’t realize they should vote for Mitt (how humble!).

Let’s go through some reality-detachment problems here:

  • Far more than 53% of Americans pay taxes, just not income taxes. The grand irony, of course, is that the extraordinarily wealthy often pay little to no income tax themselves, because most of their earnings come from capital gains, which are taxed at roughly half the rate. Not only are the actual capital gainers not taxed as income, but the people who manage those funds somehow don’t have to pay income taxes either (due to a loophole that is too lucrative to ever be closed by Wall-Street-funded politicians).
  • Many of those Americans who don’t pay income taxes simply make too little money to owe income taxes, even though they are working, which amounts to at minimum a third of the 47% figure he cites. Having people in the labor force who aren’t making enough money to pay income tax hardly seems like they’re useless leeches, it sounds more like they are working hard to get out of poverty. We COULD make them pay income taxes, I guess, but that would seem to be against the whole Romney ethos of tax cuts, no?
  • Many Americans who don’t pay income taxes are either retired or in school. I don’t think people who have already spent over 40 years contributing to our society, or are training themselves to contribute MORE to society, are people who consider themselves “victims” (to use Romney’s word) and are the enemy of growth.
  • The greatest irony of all, of course, is that his electoral analysis is completely off. Of the 10 states that are the most dependent on “entitlements,” 8 are current deep red states and the other 2 (Florida and New Mexico) are swing states with a very purple bent. So clearly, that 47% isn’t overly married to Obama. On the flip side of the coin, that 53% isn’t selfishly interested enough to necessarily go for Romney, either. Hordes of highly educated wealthy liberals in cities like Boston, New York, San Francisco, Chicago, and LA, just to name a few, would never consider voting for Romney despite being members of that apparently subservient 53%
  • Not a factual issue, but I think that last point deserves emphasis. Romney is painting the picture that the wealthier classes in America, the ones who make enough money to pay income taxes, are subject to the exploitation of the working poor who are sapping them for sustenance like “food” and “healthcare” (god forbid those were considered fundamental human rights). Do I need to even point out how crazy this is??

Look, this election clearly isn’t just about what direction to take America in. This election will also help decide what kind of America we already have, and what kind of past we’ve lived. The Tea Party, in particular, has completely re-written our national history focused almost exclusively on a hyper-individualist narrative at the end of the 19th century that was referred to as the “Gilded Age” precisely because things were much worse than they appeared on the surface. When people like Mitt Romney expose the way they really see America, they give us the opportunity to reject precisely that line of revisionist thinking.

This Struggle Will Define Our Generation

Mitt Romney didn’t just make a clumsy political move when he came out swinging against a statement that Obama and the White House had absolutely nothing to do with, he also violated the very first rule of international affairs: shut the hell up and make sure you know exactly what is going on before you do or say anything.

As stupid as his particular actions were, however, I actually share his outrage that the West is continually bullied by a particularly nihilistic brand of Islam into compromising our values. The Left is so concerned with sensitivity that they end up tolerating what should be intolerable. In that vein, I find myself with Christopher Hitchens, wondering why American progressives can so clearly see the threat presented by hateful versions of Christianity but not that of hateful versions of Islam.

This has already been termed the “Clash of Civilizations” by pundits, but in reality the battle lines aren’t drawn neatly between the two civilizations. It would be more accurate to call it a Clash of Ideals, with advocates in both societies, and no ambiguity that those who stand for freedom and tolerance are the ones who will do the most good for universal human dignity. This struggle has already and will continue to define our generation’s foreign affairs, so let’s make sure we fight it, and fight it wisely.

Be Prudent

First, let’s talk Foreign Policy 101. Why shouldn’t we come out guns blazing? Because acting out of a wounded sense of pride can have a cost in American lives. When the embassy in Cairo is surrounded by an angry mob, issuing a screed outlining exactly how wrong those people are sounds like an excellent way to turn a tense situation into a humanitarian tragedy. No matter your personal feelings or political preferences, sometimes you have to swallow that pride in favor of acting in a way that best manages the crisis of the moment, as the embassy in Cairo did by issuing a palliative statement to ease the tension.

When the central governments of Egypt and Libya regain a firmer grip and the U.S. Department of State has time to evaluate exactly how these attacks came about, then we can start evaluating the best means of simultaneously protecting our interests and protecting our values. We now know, for example, that the assaults on the Libyan diplomats were coordinated by attackers unrelated to the protests themselves, and who merely used them as cover. That would seem to be an important detail in coordinating a response to these actions, wouldn’t it?

Caution, patience, and treating foreign leaders with respect that they may not really deserve can all be extraordinarily frustrating to Americans who come from a culture where action and confrontation in the name of Good is more easily forgiven than passive capitulation to Evil. The problem is, exercising this instinct on the international stage is rooted in the arrogant assumption that we understand people who we probably don’t. A thing as simple as the “thumbs up” gesture, which indicates a positive satisfaction in almost the entire Western world, is the equivalent of flipping someone the bird in Iran. If for no other reason, be cautious with your words and actions so they won’t have consequences you don’t intend.

Without question, the cynical slaughter of innocent diplomats is not only a clear violation of international laws and norms, it is a morally repugnant act with no possible justification. That does not, however, mean that we should ignore the most basic lessons of foreign policy in dealing with it.

Stand for Principle

The motivation behind these attacks and protests does, however, utterly incense me: a belief that the US Government’s should exact the kind of retribution those mobs would on the creator of a stupid low-budget YouTube “movie” that says horrible things about the Prophet Muhammad.

This brand of Islam has a very strange, very dangerous, and unfortunately very old principle at its root: laws that apply to me, as a believer, must be forcibly applied to all. If that idea sounds familiar, that’s because modern evangelical Christians in the US, Catholics during the Crusades, ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel, Hindu nationalists in India, and demented adherents of every other religion that ever existed also have used this principle to justify what essentially amounts to fascism. It’s fine that depicting the Prophet is haraam for you; it’s not for me, because I don’t share your beliefs. I’m more than happy to tolerate your right to worship a spaghetti monster as long as you don’t attempt to prevent non-adherents from eating pasta because it is “sacred.”

Intelligent people can probably agree this is when religion transitions from defensible to indefensible. A Muslim demands tolerance of their religion’s right to not tolerate other peoples’ right to their set of beliefs invokes a massive hypocrisy: it fails the basic moral fairness test of universalizability, and all tenets of basic common sense.

Aside from moral bankruptcy, it’s also truly dangerous, since the fear these reactionaries are capable of instilling seriously compromises the freedoms we enjoy in our own societies.

The defining example, and one that should be considered a great stain on the West’s moral legacy, is the abject lack of political, social, and intellectual support for Salman Rushdie after Iran’s Ayatollah put him up for religiously commanded ritual assassination for writing a piece of literature. The freedom of speech in our country isn’t just limited by our common law and adjudications of the intersection of multiple rights claims; it is also limited by the bloodlust of violent psychos whose ideas we continually forgive and appease in the name of cultural sensitivity.

Therefore, we cannot apologize for those in our societies who exercise that right. We cannot decry and shame even the most idiotic expressions by the most idiotic expressers (of which Sam Bacile is doubtless a member) without simultaneously unambiguously defending their right to be complete idiots. We cannot make statements like President Obama did when he said we reject the “denigration” of faiths, because official tolerance of that very denigration is precisely what makes our right to free expression meaningful. We cannot, like basically all American officials did, apologize by invoking our culture of religious tolerance and only decrying those who did the direct violence, not the protesters who carry the banner of hatred.

Importantly, however, the obligation to fight for these values does not end in the West. The average people of majority-Muslim countries have every bit as much at stake as we do. Too often, however, so-called “moderates” will dampen their outrage against this dangerous intolerance by saying that they actually agree Islam shouldn’t be insulted, and some even say there should be consequences for doing so. We understand that “not all Muslims are like the radicals” but just because they are not actively supporting that group does not abdicate those Muslims’ responsibility to fight for tolerance of Western belief systems as strongly as they fight for tolerance of their own.

Without fighting for this principle, our free expression will be forever shackled by the fear imposed by the terror of fascists who veil themselves in Islam. Don’t allow that to happen.

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